为什么做出好的决策很难

246 2018-08-05 18:39

因为聚光灯效应:Daniel Kahneman says “A remarkable aspect of your mental life is that you are rarely stumped,” and mistakenly believe “what you see is all there is.” 人们总是只看到自己看到的和想看到的,很难跳出自己看自己,所以要经常问问自己,“为什么我会这么想”。

作者认为决策过程中有四大挑战,并提出了解决办法

  1. Narrow framing <> 拓宽选项
  2. Confirmation bias <> 用事实检验假设
  3. Short-term emotion <> 从远处看决策
  4. Over-confidence <> 为错误做准备

雷达里奥也说,Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).

举例子讲述人们常常做出错误的决定

  • Career choices, for instance, are often abandoned or regretted. An American Bar Association survey found that 44% of lawyers would recommend that a young person not pursue a career in law.
  • A study of 20,000 executive searches found that 40% of senior-level hires “are pushed out, fail or quit within 18 months.”
  • More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years.
  • One study of corporate mergers and acquisitions—some of the highest-stakes decisions executives make—showed that 83% failed to create any value for shareholders.

怎么办?用流程解决。在决策中,流程比分析重要六倍。

  • Because understanding our shortcomings is not enough to fix them.
  • 人们决策流程普遍过于简单
    • final decision maker to be both the challenger and the ultimate judge.
    • Franklin’s moral algebra
    • Pros-and-cons
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