因为聚光灯效应：Daniel Kahneman says “A remarkable aspect of your mental life is that you are rarely stumped,” and mistakenly believe “what you see is all there is.” 人们总是只看到自己看到的和想看到的，很难跳出自己看自己，所以要经常问问自己，“为什么我会这么想”。
- Narrow framing <> 拓宽选项
- Confirmation bias <> 用事实检验假设
- Short-term emotion <> 从远处看决策
- Over-confidence <> 为错误做准备
雷达里奥也说，Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
- Career choices, for instance, are often abandoned or regretted. An American Bar Association survey found that 44% of lawyers would recommend that a young person not pursue a career in law.
- A study of 20,000 executive searches found that 40% of senior-level hires “are pushed out, fail or quit within 18 months.”
- More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years.
- One study of corporate mergers and acquisitions—some of the highest-stakes decisions executives make—showed that 83% failed to create any value for shareholders.
- Because understanding our shortcomings is not enough to fix them.
- final decision maker to be both the challenger and the ultimate judge.
- Franklin’s moral algebra